Lead development of cutting-edge predictive models using regression, ML, and simulation to forecast drug spend.
Develop ongoing short, mid, and long-range forecasts of rebates, trends, revenue, and expenses for Abarca and its clients.
Develop actuarial work products that inform business decision making.
Develop prescriptive frameworks that translate model insights into targeted interventions (e.g., outreach sequencing, formulary design, provider strategies).
Craft financial impact modeling for changes in risk, utilization management, and trends.
Forecast trends using market indicators and Abarca solutions via explanatory variables, simulation, judgmental, and experience methods.
Create models that showcase Abarca’s value proposition.
Assist in modeling the impact of new regulations and quality measures (e.g., STARs).
Communicate key results to executives and functional leads and serve as a senior thought leader and trusted advisor.
Develop other financial models for critical priorities as needed and support underwriting with analytic models for pricing and guarantees.
Stay ahead of predictive analytics and payor trends and participate in strategic leadership discussions and decisions.
Requirements
Bachelor’s Degree or Master’s Degree in Statistics, Computer Science, Mathematics, Social Science, Finance, or a related field (In lieu of a degree, equivalent experience may be considered).
10+ years’ experience as an actuary in medical or pharmacy benefits or healthcare payor analytics, including PBM, MA, or consulting.
Expertise in SQL, Python/R, ML libraries, and tools like SAS, PowerBI, or Tableau.
Demonstrated experience in building predictive models for drug spend and quality metrics with complex claims/pharmacy datasets.
Experience in driving and taking ownership for creating cost savings and ROI models.
Strong communicator with ability to influence clinical, financial, and executive stakeholders.
This position may require availability for on-call hours, including evenings, weekends, and holidays.
Nice to haves: Fellow or Associate in the Society of Actuaries (FSA or ASA).
Nice to haves: Experience with Commercial, Medicare, and Medicaid revenue methodologies as well as APMs and Value-Based Care contracts and creating value proposition models.
Nice to haves: Experience as a professional actuary, including Medicare Advantage and Part D bidding trend and forecasting analytics.
Nice to haves: Coding skills, preferably SAS, VBA, SQL, Python, and R.
Abarca Health LLC does not sponsor employment visas at this time.