Data Science Lead

Carrier

Data Science and Forecasting Lead developing Carrier-specific demand forecast models for HVAC markets. Collaborating with cross-functional teams to shape industry outlook and planning.

Posted 5/13/2026full-timeRemote • Florida • 🇺🇸 United StatesSenior💰 $96,000 - $192,000 per yearWebsite

About the role

Key responsibilities & impact

Maintain and refine industry demand models to forecast short-term and long-term North America Residential and Light Commercial HVAC market demand.
Generate supplemental industry outlook forecast scenarios through sensitivity analysis against key variables and assumptions to provide senior leadership with a lower and upper bound for the forecast, in addition to the baseline forecast.
Leverage, maintain, and refine Carrier’s demand sensing forecast for Residential and Light Commercial to detect and respond to short-term changes in customer demand.
Track forecast model accuracy using KPIs such as MAPE. Continuously improve model accuracy and forecasting methodologies.
Prepare monthly executive-level demand outlook reports.
Maintain and refine market intelligence dashboard for senior leadership.
Proactively highlight “Red Flag” metrics (e.g. housing market weakness, non-residential construction trend, consumer sentiment) identified by the demand forecasting model.
Pressure-test the Annual Operating Plan (Plan) industry outlook forecast to ensure achievability and reasonableness.
Collaborate with North America Sales & Operations Planning personnel to mutually develop the SIOP monthly demand forecast for North America Residential and Light Commercial, which balances unconstrainted demand and supply constraints.
Incorporate U.S. and Canadian regulatory changes (e.g., SEER2 standards, refrigerant transition) and insights from the Market Intelligence and Strategic Insights team into the forecast and demand planning models.
Maintain an in-depth knowledge of designated markets and trends through monitoring industry reports, market research, and relevant macroeconomic data, most notably from Moody’s, National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and HARDI.

Requirements

What you’ll need

Bachelor’s degree.
5+ years of combined experience in demand forecasting, economic modelling, and data analytics.
2+ years’ experience with time-series modeling (ARIMA, regression, leading indicator models).
5+ years’ experience in developing executive-level summaries and presentations.
5+ years’ experience with Microsoft Excel and PowerPoint.

Benefits

Comp & perks

Health Care Benefits : Medical, Dental, Vision; Wellness incentives
Retirement Benefits
Time off and Leave : Paid vacation days, up to 15 days; paid sick days, up to 5 days; paid personal leave, up to 5 days; paid holidays, up to 13 days; birth and adoption leave; parental leave; family and medical leave; bereavement leave; jury duty leave; military leave; purchased vacation
Disability : Short-term and long-term disability
Life Insurance and Accidental Death and Dismemberment
Tax-Advantaged Accounts: Health Savings Account; Health Care Spending Account; Dependent Care Spending Account
Tuition Assistance

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Hard Skills & Tools

demand forecastingeconomic modelingdata analyticstime-series modelingARIMAregressionleading indicator modelsKPI trackingforecasting methodologiesmarket intelligence

Soft Skills

collaborationcommunicationpresentation skillsanalytical thinkingproblem-solvingattention to detailstrategic thinkingleadershipproactive mindsetreporting