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Lightly

Freelance Geopolitical, Event Forecasting Expert

Lightly

Geopolitical and Event Forecasting Experts evaluating AI-generated predictions about real-world events. Join a YC-backed team conducting cutting-edge AI evaluation projects.

Posted 6/27/2026contractRemote • 🇺🇸 United StatesJuniorMid-LevelWebsite

ATS Keywords

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Applicant Tracking System Keywords

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Hard Skills
political analysismacroeconomicsgeopolitical riskpolicy researchprobabilistic forecastselection modellingpolicy impact assessmentsmacro scenario analysisprediction marketssuperforecasting methodologies
Soft Skills
analytical skillsquantitative skillscommunication skills
Tools & Technologies
PolymarketMetaculus
Industry Keywords
event forecastsaccuracy assessmentquality assessmentpolicy announcementscentral bank decisionstechnology eventsregulatory events

About the role

Key responsibilities & impact
  • Evaluate AI-generated event forecasts by assessing the accuracy and quality of predictions covering elections, central bank decisions, policy announcements, and technology/regulatory events using a provided rubric

Requirements

What you’ll need
  • Have at least 2-3 years of recent experience in political analysis, macroeconomics, geopolitical risk, or policy research
  • Have experience producing or evaluating probabilistic forecasts - election modelling, policy impact assessments, or macro scenario analysis
  • Are familiar with prediction markets (Polymarket, Metaculus) or superforecasting methodologies
  • Are fluent in English (requirement)
  • Have strong analytical and quantitative skills
  • Communicate clearly and precisely

Benefits

Comp & perks
  • Work directly with a YC-backed team on cutting-edge AI evaluation projects
  • Competitive compensation tailored to experience and scope of work